Garett Bolles is playing his way to a much bigger contract than anyone thought.
In perhaps one of the biggest surprises in what has been a bizarre 2020 is the emergence of Garett Bolles as the most consistent, and arguably best player on the offense side of the football for the Denver Broncos.
Yes, this is the same Garett Bolles that has lead the league in holding since he entered it in 2017 and has been booed out of Empower Field at Mile High more times than you can count on one hand. Unfortunately this incredibly pleasant surprise doesn’t come without consequences –financial consequences.
John Elway made a decision in the Spring to not pick up the ever-so-valuable 5th-year option that would have kept Bolles around for another year at a reasonable price. In hindsight, that is looking like a poor decision as Elway is faced with the difficult decision to either pony up a large contract, place the franchise tag on Bolles which would take away that option on other players such as Justin Simmons, or let Bolles hit free agency and risk losing him to another team.
After a very clean week-one performance by the 4th-year left tackle, it was suggested that Elway should have tried to work out that extension sooner rather than later to get a deal that would have been friendly to the Broncos but also provide Bolles some security.
Unfortunately, the specific deal suggested is no longer an option as Bolles has far outplayed it. Although the sample size is still small, Garett has proven to have taken that next step, even if he isn’t willing to admit it.
"“To be honest, I know you all are going to ask me about my contract but I’m not really going to worry about that. I pay somebody to do that.”Bolles said on Thursday (quotes via Broncos PR)"
And worry about it he shouldn’t, Bolles is going to a big time payday from someone as he’s put enough on film thus far this year to make at least one team a believer that he deserves to be a top paid guy.
After all, free agency this year saw Halapoulivaati Vaitai, a career backup right tackle for the Eagles nab roughly $9 million a year from the Lions. If a guy with his caliber can get that, Bolles would be in line for far more on the open market come March.
So what might a fair deal look like now with the film Bolles has put out? To understand that, you don’t have to dive much deeper into what he’ll make if he were to receive the franchise tag as a starting point for the negotiations.
According to overthecap.com the 2020 franchise number for left tackle is $14,117,000, meaning the number will be in that ballpark again in 2021. If Bolles were to be tagged again in 2022, there would be a 20% raise meaning the number would be around $16,940,400.
What this means is that Bolles has no incentive whatsoever to take a deal that offers less than $31,057,400 in guarantees with an average annual value of $15,528,700 because he can sit back and either let the Broncos tag him, or hit free agency and get paid more on the open market.
So if that is the starting point for a negotiation from the Bolles camp, a fair extension to get done today would look like:
- 4 years, $64 million ($16 million/year)
- $12 million signing bonus
- $33 million guaranteed at signing
Lets break this down a bit further to look at year by year cashflows:
- 2020 (current contract+signing bonus):
- Base salary: $1,969,383 + $12,000,000 signing bonus (new money).
- Total Money: $13,969,383
- Cap hit: $5,910,225 ($1,969,383 base salary+$1,540,842 current prorated bonus+$2,400,000 signing bonus/5 years)
- 2021:
- Base salary: $11,000,000 (guaranteed)
- Cap hit: $13,400,000
- 2022:
- Base Salary: $10,000,000 (guaranteed)
- Cap hit: $12,400,000
- 2023:
- Base salary: $15,500,000 (non-guaranteed)
- Cap hit: $17,900,000
- Dead cap if cut: $4,800,000
- 2024:
- Base salary: $15,500,000 (non-guaranteed)Cap hit: $17,900,000Dead cap if cut: $2,400,000
Why is this a fair deal for both sides?
For Denver, this keeps Bolles away from the new tier of $20 million tackles, occupied only by Laremy Tunsil, a tier that he may demand to be closer to the longer he keeps up good play.
According to overthecap.com, this would put him just behind Taylor Lewan in terms of guarantees, and right on par with Lewan in terms of average per year, good for fourth in the league in both categories. It also keeps the cap hits lower in 2021 and 2022 than they would be if he were to be franchised due to the way this proposed deal is structured.
For Bolles, it is a way to guarantee that he gets a top tier contract. Although his play has been stellar, he still has three years worth of inconsistent play on film, and is only five games in to the 2020 season.
His guarantees and average value would slightly exceed that of the franchise tag for two straight years, and he’d get $12 million in money now. This deal would expire when he is 32 years old, so if he is still playing at a high level, he’d be in line for one more large deal in his career.
While it would have been great to knock out something more team friendly a few weeks ago, or have the luxury of a 5th year option to give more time to evaluate, this seems to be a very fair proposal for both sides.
The longer the Broncos wait to give Bolles his extension, the more his price tag is going to go up if he continues to play at the level he has shown in the first five games of the year.