With a plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal, how will Denver Broncos QB Drew Lock distribute the ball to his targets in the 2020 season?
Most of Denver Broncos Country -- fans and members of the team alike -- are relishing in the promise of Drew Lock building on his promising start to his young career. Equipped with new weapons and a coaching staff looking to build around him, the future looks bright.
That being said, just how and when will we see the young gunslinger distribute to those weapons?
I've taken a look at how Lock distributed the ball last year and how Pat Shurmur ran his offense and tried to make an educated guess. Lock's distribution was shockingly similar to that of the Giants' season stats season stats last season in terms of targets percentage to each position group. So I'll just go with Lock's numbers.
He distributed the ball 57 percent to wide receivers (26 percent to Sutton), 23 percent to tight ends, and 20 percent to backs per Pro Football Reference.
One difference is that the Giants averaged 38 pass attempts per game to Drew's 31 (7 more per game) so with that in mind and the new players those targets will be thrown to, I have some ideas as to what Denver's offense will look like.
Purely by percentages, this projection could put Courtland Sutton at around 91 receptions and around 1,400 yards. That all begs the question of, "What about Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler?" Well, DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick received over 9 targets per game combined with Lock under center last season.
So especially with a couple more targets to spread around, they can eat too. Guys like Hamilton and Patrick may also fight for their role and contribute.
The running back group now features Melvin Gordon as a target out of the backfield, and he could also see increased production as Gordon is well-versed as a receiver out of the backfield. He boasts a career 8.4 yards per reception mark while Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman were 5.6 and 6.0 respectively.
In terms of tight ends, the Broncos, of course, have Noah Fant who should be able to step more solidly into a mismatch tight end role with guys like Jeudy drawing coverage. He should find it easier to get open in general.
Beyond Fant, Denver has a very crowded tight end room. Most believe Jeff Heuerman to be an eventual cap casualty leaving newcomer Nick Vannett as a more traditional blocking tight end while Drew Lock's old buddy Albert Okwuegbunam will get some targets spelling Fant.
We won't know for some time which names fit where on the depth chart, but from what I can tell all weapons will be ready and all options on the table in the Broncos 2020 offense.