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Denver Broncos: Bold predictions for the team in 2020

By Shelby Manning

DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 27: Tight end Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs is tackled by free safety Justin Simmons #31 of the Denver Broncos after catching a pass in overtime at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on November 27, 2016 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 27: Tight end Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs is tackled by free safety Justin Simmons #31 of the Denver Broncos after catching a pass in overtime at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on November 27, 2016 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) /
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DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 22: Drew Lock #3 of the Denver Broncos celebrates a touchdown against the Detroit Lions in the fourth quarter at Empower Field at Mile High on December 22, 2019, in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 22: Drew Lock #3 of the Denver Broncos celebrates a touchdown against the Detroit Lions in the fourth quarter at Empower Field at Mile High on December 22, 2019, in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Matty Mulls

Bold Prediction No.1: The Broncos will finish 11-5 and earn a wild card spot

Last season, Lock came on the scene in a big way. Unfortunately for the Broncos, that entrance happened too late in the season to secure a playoff berth.

Lock stunned teams like the Los Angeles Chargers and Texans en route to a 4-1 record. According to the analysis done at CBS Sports, quarterbacks take good steps forward in year two, with and without an offensive coordinator change.

The Broncos in fact made an OC change, firing Rich Scangarello and bringing in Pat Shurmur to fill the same role. Let’s look at some key stats for Pat Shurmur.

Six of the last seven years, teams rank in top 12 of pass attempts (outlier Keenum in Minnesota) five of last seven years, teams rank in top nine of pass attempts. Last season 12th was Jacksonville at 36.8 pass attempts per game,15.86 team rank average in seven years for touchdown passes. Last season, 15th was Minnesota at 1.5 touchdown passes per game.

If we extrapolate Lock’s rookie numbers over the course of a season we get: 320-of-499, 3,264 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10.56 interceptions (According to Pro Football Reference).

If we take into account the increase in play for his second season based on the CBS Sports research: 326-499, 3,628 yards, 29 TDs – 10 INTs. If we add in the Shurmur effect on the offense: 385-of-588, 4,275 yards, 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions.

I think this offense will be a little more prolific but the moderate numbers of passing touchdowns is concerning. My prediction for Drew Lock: 385-of-588, 4,275 yards, 30 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and an 11-5 record.

DENVER, CO – DECEMBER 29: Von Miller #58 of the Denver Broncos celebrates after a fourth-quarter sack of Derek Carr #4 of the Oakland Raiders during a game at Empower Field at Mile High on December 29, 2019, in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – DECEMBER 29: Von Miller #58 of the Denver Broncos celebrates after a fourth-quarter sack of Derek Carr #4 of the Oakland Raiders during a game at Empower Field at Mile High on December 29, 2019, in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

Bold Prediction No.2: The Denver Broncos will be in the top 5 in sacks next season (up from 17th)

Denver was only able to get 40 sacks on the season last year (tied with Arizona). This is due to injuries and a severe cold streak to start the season (zero sacks in the first three games).

Over the course of the last five games (the games Lock started), Denver averaged three sacks a game. Over the course of a season, this makes good for 48 sacks total (would’ve been Top 5).

Add in Casey, a healthy Chubb, and a returning Harris alongside Miller and that seems very obtainable.

The Broncos should be scoring more points next season, allowing the defense to “pin their ears back” and get after opposing quarterbacks. This will create more opportunities for “Orange Crush 2020” to get that sack total up.

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