Which team is the ideal choice to be a trade partner with the Denver Broncos in the 2019 NFL Draft if they choose to move down?
How likely are the Denver Broncos to trade down in the 2019 NFL Draft?
Well, as was the case last year, it all really depends on which players fall to them at pick no. 10 overall, and that seems like a cop-out, but it’s true.
There are a number of players that, if they were to fall to the 10th pick, the Broncos would probably turn down trade offers to take them, but how big of an offer would they really turn down?
First of all, let’s look at a first-round scenario the Broncos could face.
1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
3. New York Jets: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
4. Oakland Raiders: Ed Oliver, DL, Houston
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin White, LB, LSU
6. New York Giants: Quinnen Williams, DL, Alabama
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan
8. Detroit Lions: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
9. Buffalo Bills: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
If this were the case, the Broncos would have teams calling about trading up for quarterbacks. As a matter of fact, the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions might have teams calling to trade up ahead of the Broncos who have been showing interest in the quarterbacks themselves.
If teams pass on this year’s quarterback crop in the top 10 aside from Murray going first overall, the Broncos would be in a prime position to trade back, and there are a few teams who would probably love to move up with them.
The Miami Dolphins are one. The Washington Redskins are another. The New York Giants are another team who could be a surprise candidate to trade up after acquiring a bunch of extra capital in the Odell Beckham Jr. trade.
The Giants seem likely to take a quarterback early this year, but would they risk not getting ‘their guy’ after snatching up someone like Quinnen Williams earlier in round one?
The Broncos need to have their line open, just like they did with the Buffalo Bills last year. Would a team be desperate enough to give the Broncos their 2020 first-round pick?
Obviously the further down the draft order you go, the more you’re going to have to give up. The Giants at 17 are seven picks away from Denver and behind both the Dolphins and their division rival Redskins.
Would the Giants be willing to out-bid their division rivals and another team for a guy like Drew Lock or Dwayne Haskins?
The Dolphins likely wouldn’t overpay knowing they would probably get one of those two guys just staying pat at 13.
The Redskins have so much tied up in quarterback already, and they have done trades with the Broncos the past two years involving players and picks, so perhaps they are the most likely option based on Elway’s recent history of making deals, but the team that could probably offer the best return is the Giants, who now have a bunch of extra picks this year and could sacrifice picks next year to get their guy at QB.
The Giants are just far enough away in the draft order that in order to get their QB, they might have to overpay in a trade.
We know that the going rate for trading up for a quarterback — save for the Raiders-Cardinals trade last year — is about a first and third round pick to swap spots.
The Broncos would only be moving down seven spots here, but the fact that there could be a bidding war and the quarterback position is involved forces the trade value chart out of the picture entirely.
The Broncos could give up a fourth or fifth round pick in next year’s draft in exchange for the Giants’ first- and third-round picks in this year’s draft, as well as a first-rounder in 2020.
Again, it sounds like such a high price to pay but go back to the 2016 NFL Draft when teams started basically paying the same general price (or more) to move up for quarterbacks they coveted. It’s almost always around a first- and third-round value on top of the swapping of picks.
The Giants need a succession plan for Eli Manning, who is two years away from 40 and hasn’t been playing well in recent years.
The Broncos need a succession plan for that matter, but their play might be in 2020 as opposed to 2019, and there’s nothing wrong with that. They have Joe Flacco under contract for three years.
We will know more in the coming weeks whether or not the Giants are a realistic trade partner for the Broncos, but because they are the team furthest down the list in the teens, they would likely have to pay the highest price.
Their need for a QB of the future combined with their draft capital makes them the most enticing option for the Broncos to try and move down with.