Denver Broncos may have to trade up to get their QB

If there’s anything we learned from the 2018 NFL Draft, it’s that you need to either tank or trade up to get the quarterback you want.

This seems like such an obvious thing to say, but it needs to be said anyway. The Denver Broncos are going to be in a position this offseason where finding a head coach and quarterback who can work together and make the team better for the foreseeable future are non-negotiable.

With that being the case, the Broncos have to do whatever it takes to make sure they are in a position where they can get the quarterback they want.

Sometimes that means paying up to trade up for ‘your guy’.

The Broncos did that once in the past with Paxton Lynch trading a third-round pick to move up a few spots in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft to get the former Memphis product.

That move didn’t pay off in the least, but it shouldn’t scare the Broncos off from trying it again.

The veteran quarterback market could be interesting this offseason but the Broncos would have a much more difficult time convincing Case Keenum to re-structure his contract if they are bringing in another veteran to take his job versus a rookie he would be more confident beating for the job.

If there’s anything we learned from the 2018 NFL Draft, it’s that you have to either tank (the Browns went 0-16, securing the number one pick) or trade up (the Jets, Bills, Cardinals, and Ravens all traded up) to get the quarterback you covet.

The Broncos have plenty of picks over the next two years to manipulate the draft board, and if it’s only Dwayne Haskins and Drew Lock at the top of the 2019 class, it’s very possible John Elway would have to start dreaming up trade scenarios to get the quarterback he covets.

It’s possible a team trading up would have to move up as high as first or second overall.

Right now, the top five teams in the 2019 NFL Draft are the Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, and Detroit Lions.

None of those teams will be vying for a quarterback in round one, barring the unforeseen. The Broncos will be able to communicate with all of those teams in the coming months to discuss whether or not they will be interested in accumulating picks and moving down.

The 49ers may be the likeliest trade partner, but they will have plenty of offers from other teams.

Arizona has the chance to take the top player on their board to build around Josh Rosen, and they should not give up that opportunity. The 49ers have a variety of needs and if the Cardinals plan on taking the top player on their board as well, the Niners could see an opportunity to move down and acquire picks/players as a huge win.

There’s still a whole week of football to play out and we’ll know the final 2019 NFL Draft order at that point. But a Broncos loss this weekend would likely put them in the top 10 picks of the 2019 NFL Draft and give them a much more attractive trade package for another team.

Teams are often willing to move down in the NFL Draft, but obviously the further away you are, the more you have to pay up.

The price that’s been set in recent years is roughly two first-round picks and a third-round pick for a first-round pick. The Jets and Colts got creative as New York had multiple second-round picks to offer, but the value is really similar when you’re talking about moving up to the top of the draft order.

Jets-Colts Sam Darnold Trade

The Jets traded a first-round pick and two second-round picks to move up three spots to take Darnold. Those two second-round picks are the equivalent of a first-rounder on the NFL trade value chart.

Bills-Buccaneers Josh Allen Trade

The Bills traded two second-round picks to move up and get Josh Allen. Those two second-rounders were later than the ones the Jets offered the Colts, but those are still extremely valuable picks. The Bills had also made a number of trades prior to that final trade to get up as high as they did, including moving offensive tackle Cordy Glenn.

Cardinals-Raiders Josh Rosen Trade

The Raiders are becoming known for making terrible trades. They surrendered the 10th overall pick for the low price of a third-round pick and fifth-round pick to swap with Arizona, who took Josh Rosen.

Ravens-Eagles Lamar Jackson Trade

The Ravens traded a second-round pick and fourth-round pick in 2018 along with a second-round pick in 2019 to the Eagles for the 32nd overall pick to get Lamar Jackson.

As you can see from these trades, the price to move up to get a quarterback is high (unless you’re asking the Raiders to move down) no matter where you’re picking in the draft order. Thus, it would benefit the Broncos greatly in terms of draft positioning to lose their final game and have a more attractive piece to involve if they do end up wanting to move up for a quarterback.

The major issue here? They could have done this last year but perhaps the Jets took everyone by surprise. If the Broncos didn’t like Sam Darnold enough to offer a King’s Ransom to the Giants in 2018, would they offer up their 2019 first-round pick in a draft class that involves Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Jake Fromm (potentially) among others?

If the Broncos fall in love with someone, they’re going to take him. The ideal scenario would be to sit at whatever pick they end up with and the guy just falls there, but that is not always a luxury afforded to teams like Denver. As evidenced by 2018’s class, if you want a quarterback, you’ve got to maneuver the draft board to get him anymore.

Denver must be prepared.