The Denver Broncos signed quarterback Case Keenum this past offseason to be a difference-maker. He has definitely been that over the past month-plus.
When the Denver Broncos signed Case Keenum to a two-year, $36 million contract in the early hours of the 2018 NFL free agency negotiating period, it was immediately expected that he would come in and make a significant impact on the team.
No one was ever under the illusion that Keenum was a Luck, Rodgers, Brady, or Wilson type of player, but he showed in 2017 with the Minnesota Vikings that he is capable of being a very effective starter in the NFL, and the Broncos paid him handsomely.
It was the first time in Keenum’s career an NFL franchise had really committed to him, even though a number of others had given him chances.
He got his start in the NFL with Gary Kubiak and the Houston Texans, and bounced around between Houston, St. Louis/Los Angeles, and Minnesota before ultimately proving he had progressed significantly in Minneapolis.
In the early portion of the season for the Broncos, Keenum did not look nearly as good with Denver as he did with the Vikings.
He started off the season throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions in a victory over the Seattle Seahawks, and proceeded to throw at least one interception in the team’s first eight games.
Despite the tough start to his Broncos career, however, Keenum has played markedly better football over the past month-plus, and the results back that up.
"Since Week 7, Keenum has looked a whole lot more like the quarterback that excelled with the Vikings rather than the one who struggled through stints with the Rams and Houston Texans." https://t.co/9Qt4esBZx2 pic.twitter.com/qY6wcv9tL2
— PFF DEN Broncos (@PFF_Broncos) November 29, 2018
Pro Football Focus split Keenum’s season in half there, though the second half includes a bye week and one less game.
Even if you take the last six games from Keenum (which would include the Broncos’ near upset of the Los Angeles Rams), the results are impressive.
He’s completed 62 percent of his passes over the last six games with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s put the Broncos in position to win, most importantly. How has he done that? He’s done that with a high level of efficiency.
Over the last six games, Keenum has a quarterback rating of 90.8. Quarterback rating is not the end-all of statistics, but it is a pretty solid measurement of how effective quarterbacks are on a per-snap basis, and you would certainly rather see that number above 85-88 if at all possible.
A quarterback rating of 90.8 over six games is something the Broncos have not experienced since 2014 with Peyton Manning. As a matter of fact, last season, the Broncos’ average quarterback rating (between Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch) was 79.6, and that was with some significant outliers sprinkled in throughout the year.
In 11 games last season, the Broncos’ average quarterback rating was 61.6. That’s astronomically low and the main reason the team was willing to invest $36 million in a quarterback who could play at a competent level.
The Broncos have won their last two games against surefire AFC playoff teams, and potentially Super Bowl candidates. They would have won their game against the Houston Texans were it not for a missed field goal in the final seconds, but Houston won and is now on an eight-game winning streak.
It’s been said a thousand times outside of this platform, but Denver also came within inches of beating Kansas City in week four. The Broncos have proven themselves to be a much tougher opponent this season and over the last six weeks, it’s hard to argue against Case Keenum being a major reason why the team is more competitive.
His numbers aren’t winning anyone fantasy matchups, but he’s playing efficient football and may be coming off his best game as a Bronco against the Pittsburgh Steelers, at least from an efficiency standpoint.
If Keenum can keep it up, the Broncos are going to continue winning games.