Denver Broncos: The optimist’s guide to a playoff run

At 3-6, the Denver Broncos have been counted out by everyone and their mothers. But a playoff spot is still possible. Here is why that is the case.

Through nine games, the optimism that surrounded the Denver Broncos after signing quarterback Case Keenum and rounding up an A-level draft class has been completely eroded. The Broncos are 3-6, sitting at third in the AFC West and currently hold the 13th seed in the AFC.

Keenum, who was brought to Denver to end the turnover-happy quarterback play of the past two seasons, is tied for the second most interceptions thrown and owns the fifth-worst passer rating in the NFL. The rookie class has been everything if not more than the Broncos hoped it to be. Bradley Chubb, Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, Courtland Sutton, and Josey Jewell are among first-year players who have made big contributions to the team. Still, turnovers and untimely penalties, along with a blown lead, a stretch of historically bad run defense, and a missed kick have all played a role in sinking the Denver Broncos this season.

In a word, “close” seems to be the theme of the Broncos’ season thus far. The old saying says that it only counts in two things, and neither of them has anything to do with winning in the NFL. In the Broncos’ six losses, four of them have come against teams that are in first in their division, and all four of those losses have come by seven points or less. If not for a blown fourth-quarter lead in Week 4 against the Chiefs and a missed potential game-winning field goal in their last outing against the Texans, the Broncos would be 5-4 and tied for the final wild card spot.

Remember though, close doesn’t count in the NFL. However, I would argue that being consistently close in the NFL points to a team that is good enough to compete, and with some cleaning up of mistakes is capable of being good enough to win consistently.

Since the NFL expanded its playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, only four teams have started 3-6 and gone on to make the playoffs, and it last happened in 2012 when Mike Shanahan’s Redskins did so. On top of that, FiveThirtyEight’s playoff odds metrics give the Broncos a 1% chance of securing a playoff spot. It wouldn’t take a football expert to convince someone that those are long odds. The realist would look at those odds and give up on the season. But to all my fellow optimists out there, there is reason to hope.

For starters, the Broncos are coming off of a bye week, which means they will be well-rested, injured players had time to recover, and the coaches have had plenty of time to evaluate film and conjure up a game plan for their game against the Chargers on Sunday.

Vance Joseph said on Monday that he hopes for Royce Freeman, Darian Stewart, Bradley Roby, and DaeSean Hamilton to return this week. This will be Hamilton’s first game since the trade of Demaryius Thomas, and he will likely have an expanded role in the offense.

Denver’s next three games will be played against teams with winning records: The Chargers, Steelers, and Bengals. Two of those games, against the Chargers and Bengals, will be played on the road, where the Broncos are 1-3 this season and 2-10 since 2017. The odds of winning all three games, which will almost certainly have to happen, are excruciatingly slim. But remember, we’re optimists.

The Broncos’ advantage in this stretch of must-win games will be in playing to their strengths. The Chargers and Bengals both have mediocre-to-bad run defenses, ranking 15th and 30th, respectively. Lindsay and Freeman give the Broncos the capability of taking advantage of that, as Denver is tied for first in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt.

Late in the season when the weather gets cold, games are won on the ground and Denver sports one of the best ground games in football. The Steelers, however, have displayed a much better defense against both the pass and run. The fact that the game will be in Denver will be the Broncos’ main and maybe only advantage. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 2-4 all-time in Denver.

On the other side of the ball, the Broncos’ seventh ranked pass rush gives them a chance to frustrate any offense, especially because the return of Roby should help the secondary stick with receivers longer, forcing the quarterbacks to take more time to throw the ball. The pass rush will have to step up in the next three weeks against three of the NFL’s least sacked quarterbacks.

If the Denver Broncos can manage to come out of this upcoming three-game stretch at 6-6, the next three games all come against teams with losing records in the 49ers, Browns, and Raiders. The Browns would likely be considered the toughest team in that stretch, but that is a home game for the Denver Broncos, and the Browns have been even worse than Denver on the road.

Now sitting at 9-6 and riding a six-game win streak in this hypothetical scenario, the Broncos would get a rematch with the Chargers, this time in Denver, with a potential playoff spot on the line. I would like Denver’s odds.

Of course, it is much more likely that the Denver Broncos lose at least once more this season and miss the playoffs for their third consecutive year.

That said, crazy things happen in the NFL, and with as much talent as the Broncos have, it is certainly possible that they could run the table. If Denver does lose again, I will concede that the season is over and that Vance Joseph should be given the boot. But for now, at least for one more week, let’s all try to be optimists.