Could Paxton Lynch be traded during the 2018 NFL Draft?

Are the Denver Broncos going to keep Paxton Lynch? Could he be a surprise draft weekend trade? We explore what the Broncos might be thinking…

What are the Denver Broncos’ plans with former first round pick Paxton Lynch?

Up to this point, that has been a pretty under-discussed topic, but probably for good reason.

We’ve talked quite a bit about Lynch this offseason, and why the Broncos should keep him around simply for financial reasons.

If the Broncos were to release Lynch prior to June 1st, it would actually reflect extremely poorly on their 2018 salary cap. According to Spotrac, it would add nearly $2 million to their cap space to release Lynch outright before that particular date.

If they were to trade him prior to June 1st, the dead cap hit would be slightly over $2.5 million and the cap savings would be under $39,000.

A post-June 1st trade for the Broncos would save them nearly $1.3 million on the salary cap this year, and would give them a $1.72 million dead cap hit in each of the next two years.

Because Lynch carries a cap hit of around $2.5 million for the Broncos this year, the thought is that the cap savings wouldn’t be worth their trouble. They would still be paying Lynch his base salary and signing bonus (guaranteed money) but they could get him off the books and out of the quarterback room.

Perhaps more importantly, they could get him in a new situation where he would be motivated to become the best player he can possibly be.

Lynch has been working hard this offseason, hiring Alex Guerrero (of the TB12 method) to get him in shape and constantly posting videos of himself working out on his Instagram ‘story’.

The Broncos begin offseason workouts on Monday, and Lynch is expected to be in attendance. He has also already been named the number two quarterback by head coach Vance Joseph.

If the Broncos are to draft a quarterback with the fifth overall pick, it would probably be wise — despite the financial burden — to deal Lynch.

I was thinking about this in terms of where I would rank Lynch among this year’s crop of quarterbacks. Not the college version of Lynch as an unknown prospect, but the version of Lynch we now know, two years into the NFL.

I do still believe Lynch has upside. His physical talent has been hindered only by injuries. He’s still a good athlete, he’s still got an arm, and he’s still young.

That being said, there are obvious concerns about his ability to digest an NFL playbook, as well as staying healthy. And we all know the best ability in the NFL is availability.

Lynch has simply not been available over the past year.

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In the 2018 NFL Draft, the players I would not hesitate to build around over Lynch would include Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Baker Mayfield.

Aside from those three, however, I think Lynch offers at least the upside of the other guys in this year’s draft, with Josh Allen probably having a bit higher of a ceiling. Mason Rudolph, Lamar Jackson, Allen, Kyle Lauletta, and Mike White are all guys that I would put in a similar tier as Lynch if he were being thrown in this year’s crop of players.

I don’t think any team would invest a first or second round pick in him, but as a third rounder, I could see some team who liked him in the draft process enough to do it.

There are a few teams I could see being interested in Lynch, namely the Arizona Cardinals and New Orleans Saints.

There could be other teams as well, like the Buffalo Bills, but if the Broncos draft a quarterback, they might have a bit of an issue on their hands with Case Keenum, a new top draft pick, a former top draft pick, and Chad Kelly in the quarterback room.

Some team would probably be able to get Lynch at a bargain price, and for a team like the Saints who are looking for a quarterback to develop behind Drew Brees and still win right now, Lynch could be a great addition.

The Broncos do not have to trade Lynch if they are willing to wait everything out with a crowded quarterback room. They also could choose to not draft a quarterback this year, and stick with Lynch as their developmental player for the future. I could see a scenario like that if the top three picks in the draft were Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Baker Mayfield.

If those three players are off the board, the Broncos might be better off going with Lynch, or even developing Chad Kelly further.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Broncos draft a quarterback and Lynch, along with his representatives, request a trade.

This is yet another wrinkle that could make the next two weeks leading up to the draft even more fascinating than they already are.

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