Are the Denver Broncos giving up on Paxton Lynch? What the team does with the fifth overall pick will be our clearest indicator yet…
The Denver Broncos are not done with Paxton Lynch.
At least, that’s what they’re saying the month prior to the 2018 NFL Draft.
Teams say a lot of things before the draft that they don’t mean, but in this case, I think the Broncos are conveying how they honestly feel about Lynch at this point. There’s no reason for the team to give up on him yet given it will cost them nearly $4.5 million to cut or trade him this offseason, and would save them less than $2 million.
Broncos head coach Vance Joseph spoke at length about Paxton Lynch at the NFL head coaches breakfast. We’ll highlight some of the things he talked about and how likely they are to be true.
"“I think Paxton is a factor. Paxton’s had 4-5 starts and to deem Paxton not capable, that’s no fair. Obviously it’s an age of instant gratification for all of us—for the media and [everyone]—but it takes time to [be a] good quarterback in this league. I think once Paxton gets more time he’s going to get better as a quarterback. By no means is Paxton Lynch done. By no means at all. He’s shown enough in practice—even in the games he’s played—that he can play the position. But he needs more time and that’s simply it. Wherever we go in the draft with the first pick, it doesn’t speak to Paxton [where] we’re disappointed in Paxton. We believe in Paxton because we’ve watched him work and watched him play in practice. He’s a gifted guy…He’s got that part so we have to give him more time to develop as an NFL quarterback. That does take time but everyone wants him to play early…I’m just saying they need time to develop quarterback skillsets, not just physical skillsets. The mental part of the game is huge. Once they get that they can play. But what happens is the kids come in, we play them too soon, they get burned, they lose their nerve and they can’t recover from it. That’s coaching and that’s the league. We have to give them time to develop and learn how to play the position. Now, some guys come in and they [can] play. It’s different. [Colts QB] Andrew [Luck] came in and he played. That’s a different guy. Some guys need more time.”Vance Joseph (quotes via Broncos PR)"
That’s a whopper of a quote there, but Joseph wasn’t done talking about Lynch…
"“Right now he’s the No. 2. [QB] Case [Keenum] is the one, he’s the two. That two has to be ready to play. We’re looking forward to him getting in the OTAs and getting into training camp and getting better this year. He’s a valuable member of our football team. He’s one play from being the start again. He has value and it’s huge value. He’s working hard at it also. That’s the thing no one sees. He’s a hard worker. He’s working at it. Having an example of Case Keenum is going to help him. Case has been through hell and back as a quarterback. This is Case Keenum’s first time walking into OTAs and actually being the guy. This is his very first time. So he’s excited about that opportunity. Case is gritty. That helps a young quarterback to say, ‘You know something, man? Forget the world. It’s about you grinding and getting better every day.’ If Paxton gets that form Case, he’s going to be better for it because Case is a gritty dude. That’s going to be good for Paxton to see and be around every day.”Vance Joseph"
So what are we meant to glean from all of this? I don’t think Joseph said anything here that overly commits the Broncos to Paxton Lynch going forward, but I also don’t think they are giving up on him just yet.
When you look at a broad picture of everything, the Broncos could realistically have Lynch under contract for another three seasons (his fifth-year rookie option included). The likelihood at this point of the Broncos picking up Lynch’s fifth-year option doesn’t seem great just because of the way he’s played up to this point, and his inability to stay healthy.
I will say for Lynch, the game he played against the Kansas City Chiefs in week 17 this past season has given me reason to at least pause when considering his future with the team.
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But would his performance in that game, or anything he’s done to this point, prevent me from taking a quarterback with the fifth overall pick if I’m John Elway?
Not a chance.
Like Joseph said, right now, Lynch is a valuable piece of the team. But I’m not sure I buy much of the rest. Taking a quarterback fifth overall would be a clear sign that the Broncos do not believe in Lynch as their quarterback of the future.
It would also probably push him to the third spot on the depth chart, where he would compete with Chad Kelly.
Lynch’s development has been incredibly slow since he was drafted in 2016, but his freakish athletic traits remain. It’s unfortunate that we don’t have a bigger sample size from Lynch at this point, but that obviously factors in to where the Broncos are right now.
Judging by his Instagram feed, Lynch is working extremely hard day in and day out this offseason. He’s putting in the time, and perhaps taking things a little more seriously now with the Broncos pushing him to the point that he may not even get another shot in Denver unless there are a rush of injuries.
More than ever before, Lynch is going to have to prove himself, which is pretty ironic. The Broncos were unwilling or too afraid to give him a chance to try and fail over the past two years, and it has put them in this predicament. Whether that’s fair to Lynch or not at this point is, unfortunately, irrelevant.
The Broncos have to get their next move at the quarterback position right. If that means drafting a player fifth overall, Lynch’s long-term future with the team is very much in question.