Denver Broncos cannot repeat 2016 quarterback mistake
The Denver Broncos cannot make the same mistake at the QB position in 2018 as they did in 2016. It’s time to go all-in on one guy…
The Denver Broncos’ quarterback saga is going to be the most discussed topic over the next couple of weeks, so we might as well embrace it.
We’ve heard just about every rumor that could be spread at this point, but one rumor that’s floating around gets me a little more riled up than others.
For a while, it’s been reported that the Broncos’ preferred option if they do not land Kirk Cousins in free agency is to sign Case Keenum, and draft someone with the fifth overall pick.
I figured this could be an option, since Keenum was brought into the league by Gary Kubiak back when both were with the Houston Texans. There’s a relationship there, and in the NFL, that kind of thing matters.
With that being said, I got to thinking about the financial investment Keenum would require (or desire) after the season he just had with the Vikings, and the fact that he’s 30 years old, and it stopped making sense to me.
The short version is, I don’t think Keenum, after the best season of his NFL career and at the age of 30, is just going to be willing to be some team’s bridge or doormat quarterback en route to a hot shot rookie taking his spot.
Why would he agree to that?
Perhaps offering him enough guaranteed cash up front would be enough to get him to bite, but then the Broncos would just be doing what the Chicago Bears did last year, and over-investing in the quarterback position, fooling no one (including Keenum) that whoever they take in the first round is going to be their guy.
If I’m Case Keenum, I would take similar or even less money to sign with the Arizona Cardinals, where I would be the undisputed ‘guy’ for a couple of years, versus sign in Denver and inevitably wait to be removed and tossed aside like I have been my entire NFL career.
Like Cousins, Keenum is going to be wanted.
There’s nothing wrong with that, but it just doesn’t seem to fit what the Broncos want/need from the veteran they bring in via free agency. That is, assuming they don’t get Kirk Cousins.
If the Broncos intend on drafting a quarterback fifth overall, it makes zero sense for them to sign Keenum to a contract worth $18-22 million per season, whatever his market settles in at. It also makes no sense for Keenum to take on a situation where he’s going to be immediately supplanted in the starting role.
Can the Broncos get him to agree to just hang around until they’re ready for someone to take his spot?
I think Keenum is going to be looking for a little more commitment than that, but that’s just personal speculation.
If Keenum’s market is significantly less than what it’s currently being projected as, as in he takes a deal similar to Mike Glennon‘s (wishful thinking) in which the team that signs him can get out of dodge after one season, then he would make sense for Denver along with the top five pick.
But if he is costing nearly $20 million per season, even at $18 million per season, the Broncos would be much better served spreading those finances out to different positions in free agency, and just diving in head first with a rookie.
Why not?
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If you decide to bridge the gap with Keenum, and then draft someone at five overall, you are essentially repeating what we saw in 2016 with Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch.
The coaches preferred Siemian, so he played. Siemian practiced better, so he played. Siemian knew the offense better, so he played. Siemian gave the team the best chance to win, so he played.
Are you telling me you’re going to pay a guy more money, and try and pull off the same scenario the Bears did?
The difference between Keenum and Mike Glennon is that Keenum has proven now at least over the course of a season that he’s a competent starter. Glennon never really did that.
It was a stark difference in talent between Glennon and Trubisky for the Bears. For the Broncos, I think Keenum is going to provide steady starter play. Why would you supplant him?
There’s nothing about the idea of paying Keenum market value and then drafting a guy fifth overall that makes sense to me. The Bears had way more money to throw around than the Broncos do. The Bears had a far worse roster than the Broncos do. The only similarity is that each needs a quarterback somehow, some way.
I feel like if the Broncos are going Keenum and a top five pick, you’re investing your two biggest assets in the same position this offseason, and wasting your time with one or the other.