Case Keenum and the Denver Broncos are not a match
The Denver Broncos have been connected to Case Keenum for obvious reasons, but the two are not a match in NFL Free Agency…
The Denver Broncos have been connected to a lot of different quarterbacks this offseason, but have recently been linked to Minnesota Vikings starter Case Keenum for obvious reasons.
Keenum was very solid in his starts for the Vikings this year, 16 games in all (including playoffs) in which the Vikings went 12-4.
The fourth loss was the disappointing NFC Championship game, in which Keenum and the Minnesota offense were stifled by the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense.
Keenum is set to become a free agent, and unlike years prior, he will be a highly prioritized free agent. He’s rightfully excited about that, but does he fit with the Denver Broncos?
The Broncos obviously have a huge connection to Keenum in Gary Kubiak, the man who brought him into the NFL coming out of college. That, we know to be true.
The other thing is, you know, the Broncos have a need at quarterback.
Their relational equity with Keenum and the Broncos could prove significant, and obviously the need for a quarterback combined with their relational equity would seem to make this an obvious fit if the Vikings let Keenum get to the open market.
However, the more I’ve thought about it, the less I see the fit between the Broncos and Keenum, specifically.
Keenum, for the first time in his professional career, is going to command a multi-year contract with a large annual salary and a sizable guarantee. The Denver Broncos are not poised to make him that kind of financial or long-term commitment.
Denver is set to go all-in for Kirk Cousins in free agency, but if they don’t get Cousins, the expectation is that they will pursue a veteran player to ‘bridge the gap’ between now and whenever the quarterback they draft with the fifth overall pick will be ready.
If the Broncos intend to sign Keenum, it will be at a cost and commitment (in terms of years on the deal) that will make drafting a quarterback at 5th overall redundant, at best.
The Broncos simply cannot afford to invest both in Keenum and a fifth overall pick, because Keenum has out-played any sort of contract that could be reasonable for Denver if they miss out on Cousins.
It will cost the Broncos upwards of $20 million per year to sign Keenum. A rookie will cost them roughly $7 million per season. It would cost over $4.45 million in dead money to trade or release Paxton Lynch this year, and then just under $2 million next year.
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So, if the Broncos go this route after missing out on Kirk Cousins, they would be paying roughly the same amount of money for three quarterbacks, one of which would not be on the roster, and two of which would be in an unnecessary competition instead of the Broncos just making a decision to go with one or the other.
If the Broncos decide on Keenum and a quarterback on day two of the draft, then it becomes a different story. But that would still mean you are making the most significant investment in Keenum, and thus, building around him.
The Broncos are not in a similar position as the Chicago Bears were a year ago when they signed Mike Glennon to that horrendous contract and then drafted Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears had a ton of cap space, and the Broncos really do not, by comparison.
The money, the years on the contract, and the logjam that would be created by bringing in Keenum is not worth the trouble for the Broncos. It’s either Cousins or a rookie with a veteran whose role is pretty clearly short-term in my eyes.
If the Broncos plan on drafting someone at no. 5 overall, Case Keenum is not a fit whatsoever with this team.