The Denver Broncos have been rumored to be interested in trading down, but John Elway has traded up in the first round of each of the past two drafts…
The Denver Broncos are heading into the 2017 NFL Draft with a lot of ammunition. John Elway is armed with 10 draft picks, and some have already started speculating that the Broncos could be exploring a move down for additional picks.
We took a look at that scenario and the possibility with some of the top selections here…
Despite all the talk of the Broncos possibly moving down and even out of the first round, there remains a possibility that the team could also move up in the draft order.
At this point in the process, the Broncos — and every NFL team — are talking with other clubs about the cost of moving down as well as the cost of moving up. There are only 10 minutes to make decisions during the actual draft when teams are on the clock, so the framework of a trade could possibly be worked out well beforehand.
Let’s look at the Broncos-Browns trade down possibility, for example.
If the Browns have plans to take two players with their top 12 selections, and they are certain that two players they covet will be on the board during those top 12 picks (no matter what), then they would look at the Broncos’ selection as a way to move back into the first round and get a player who might rank 13th on their board or higher.
If Player X happens to be on the board when the Broncos are on the clock, it’s possible the Browns have already worked the framework of a deal to move up and get ‘their guy’.
The same is true for the Broncos. They know the price of their pick depending how far they are moving down, and they likely will have a pretty good idea of what it’ll take to move up to get someone they want.
In the last two seasons, the Broncos have moved up in the first round of the draft. In 2015, they moved up to take pass rusher Shane Ray. The cost to move up and get Ray (moving from 28th to 23rd) was a first round swap, a fifth round pick in 2015, a fifth round pick in 2016, and offensive lineman Manny Ramirez.
It was a creative move by John Elway to give up nothing of critical importance for an impact player like Shane Ray.
In 2016, the Broncos moved up and out of the 31st overall spot (the Patriots had to forfeit their 2016 first round selection) to the 26th overall spot, dealing a third round pick (94th overall) to seal the deal.
That was with the Broncos out-bidding Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, who coveted Paxton Lynch and tried to move up to get him.
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Trading up isn’t an exact science in the draft. The price varies based on the order and the Broncos are in uncharted waters. The have not had a selection this high since they took Von Miller 2nd overall in the 2011 NFL Draft.
But even with the 20th overall selection being the highest they have had since John Elway’s first draft with the team, could we see the Broncos move up even higher?
It’s definitely a possibility.
As previously stated, the Broncos are armed with 10 draft selections. There is very little chance of 10 draft picks making the Broncos’ 2017 roster, so ultimately, I think the Broncos would like to end up with just eight selections, maybe nine at the most.
You can’t lose picks unless you move up in the draft or trade them for veteran players, and the Broncos certainly have reason to trade up. Rumor currently has it that some of the top offensive tackle prospects in this year’s draft — namely Garett Bolles of Utah — will be long gone by the 20th overall pick.
If the Broncos hold to their recent pattern and move up to pick no. 15 overall, they would have to for sure part with their third round pick (82nd overall) and possibly more.
Is that cost worth moving up, just to get Garett Bolles? It would be pretty scary to think of the Broncos’ left tackle situation if they don’t use a first round pick on one and can’t secure on via trade somehow, so perhaps the price is worth it.
The Broncos could also move up to try and snag Stanford star running back Christian McCaffrey, but the pressure would be enough on McCaffrey were he to be drafted at 20 overall.
It doesn’t seem likely he’ll make it that far, though, which could prompt the Broncos to make a move up.
Ultimately, I have no idea if the Broncos will move up in the first round, but perhaps that’s not the only option either. This year’s draft class is so deep, some first round caliber talent could fall out of the first entirely. The Broncos could look to deal some of their day two picks and move up to get a player they covet, possibly someone like Evan Engram, Dalvin Cook, or Joe Mixon.
Whatever the case, I think trading up at some point in the first two days seems likely for the Broncos. It’s not that the extra picks are burning a hole in their pocket, but they simply can’t take that many rookies into the regular season based on the depth of the current roster, and there’s no sense in wasting a high volume of picks if you have players you like and you have the capital to go up and get them.