Vegas’ Midseason Outlook on the Broncos and the AFC Playoff Picture
1 Seed: Patriots
They’re rolling, Brady is peeved, and they’ve twice learned the hard way what happens when you travel to Mile High in January. The AFC West is just too good and the Pats already played both their games against the AFC East’s only other good team.
2 Seed: Broncos
I predicted Pats over Broncos in New England for the AFC title before the season and I haven’t seen a whole lot to change my mind so far. The NFL should mandate that the other first around bye this season automatically goes to the only division in the conference worth anything.
3 Seed: Steelers
The Bengals may have missed their window. They’ve had suffocating defenses and A.J. Green for the past five years, and haven’t been able to get past the second round. Now the Steelers combine the best deep ball QB in the league with an all-time great wideout, a solid offensive line (though banged up), and a potential all-time great running back.
4 Seed: Titans
The NFL should also mandate that the AFC South “winner” gets the last home game in the first round. I said they’d finish 4th before the season because Mike Mularkey is a terrible coach. I still endorse the latter part of that statement, but the Titans have awesome offensive and defensive lines. In a game decided in the trenches, that should be enough to take home this putrid division that somehow got worse this season.
5 Seed: Chiefs
One thing that already seems 100% certain is that the AFC West runner up will be at least a touchdown favorite on the road against the AFC South “champion” on Wild Card Weekend.
6 Seed: Raiders
I thought long and hard about picking the Chargers, as my respect for Phillip Rivers nearly equals my sports hatred for him, but Derek Carr has taken a real step forward this season, and that offensive line and those two receivers are just too damn good.
AFC Title Odds
Favorite: Patriots (-120)
Value: Broncos (+600), Steelers (+700), Chiefs (+800), Raiders (+1300)
Longshot: Texans (+2500), Bengals (+3000), Chargers (+4000), Bills (+4500) – There are bigger underdogs than this, but none of them have a plausible chance at going to the Super Bowl (and frankly I don’t think Houston does either, the Bengals are the best longshot bet).
The Bills, Chargers, Bengals, and maybe the Ravens will contend for the last playoff berth, while Miami will fill the last spot in the “in the hunt” column on every broadcast ever until the sun explodes.
It’s a little shocking to look at the AFC and see the wild card picture more settled than the division winners, but in a season where every team has a serious fatal flaw and only a few seem to be elevated above the vast and mediocre middle, perhaps it’s fitting. As much as we yearn to ascertain the future of our favorite team, it won’t become clear for some time.
Denver’s last three games: vs New England, at Kansas City, vs Oakland. This is going down to the wire folks. The season begins Sunday night.