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Vegas’ Midseason Outlook on the Broncos and the AFC Playoff Picture

By Jacob Weindling

Oct 11, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Denver Broncos cornerback Chris Harris Jr. (25) scores on a 75-yard interception return in the fourth quarter against the Oakland Raiders at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 11, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Denver Broncos cornerback Chris Harris Jr. (25) scores on a 75-yard interception return in the fourth quarter against the Oakland Raiders at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jun 6, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Denver Broncos outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (left) and retired Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (second left) look on as President Barack Obama (middle) holds an honorary Broncos jersey at a ceremony honoring the NFL Super Bowl Champion Broncos in the Rose Garden at The White House. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 6, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Denver Broncos outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (left) and retired Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (second left) look on as President Barack Obama (middle) holds an honorary Broncos jersey at a ceremony honoring the NFL Super Bowl Champion Broncos in the Rose Garden at The White House. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /

Now we’re getting to the good stuff. I’m so excited to finally talk about good teams who are playing well. There aren’t many in the AFC outside this division. Between the other three, only Pittsburgh, New England, and Buffalo have positive point differentials.

The AFC West has four teams better than +11. The sum of the AFC West’s point differentials is 112. The sum of the rest of the AFC’s is negative 144.

The reason why I highlight this dramatic difference is because I have bad news to deliver to Bronco fans, but keep the above figures in mind.

thanks to Playoffstatus.com for these numbers

Yes, our beloved squad has the most difficult schedule remaining (based on current records). A large part of that are their four games versus 6-2 Oakland and 5-2 Kansas City. The 7-1 Patriots contribute to that too. 1st place schedules don’t mess around.

If we’re just judging the teams based on point differential, the Broncos are a cut above the rest. Only the Patriots and Eagles have outscored teams by more points than the Broncos, and first place Oakland has a lower differential than last place San Diego.

The fancy stats echo a similar sentiment, as the Broncos rank 3rd in DVOA, with the Chiefs (10th) and Raiders (11th) sitting in the wild card pack. The Raiders and Chiefs do have more efficient passing games. When everything is humming, Oakland looks nearly as explosive as the Steelers. This is as close of a division race as GM Elway’s Broncos have had.

The Raiders certainly aren’t bad, but they have been incredibly inconsistent. They might be the preeminent goodbad team in the NFL. We’ll find out a lot on Sunday night, but for now, they seem to be slightly behind the Broncos and Chiefs in the pecking order, and the odds bear that out.

Favorite: Broncos (+150)

Value: Chiefs (+200), Raiders (+240)

Longshot: Chargers (+2000)

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