Tape Don’t Lie: Trevor Siemian Should Start for the Broncos (for now)

We take a look at the performances of Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch in the third preseason game against the Los Angeles Rams.

This column was pitched as another video breakdown of the three way QB competition, but with the Sanchize throwing as many passes as you and I did Saturday night, the writing is on the wall for the former number six overall pick, and my column defending Sanchez at the beginning of training camp looks even more foolish than it did at the time.

The Broncos QB competition is a two horse race between a 2^nd and a 1^st year starter, and both Paxton Lynch and Trevor Siemian made some similar mistakes on Saturday night.

Siemian ultimately separated himself, as the videos below will prove.

Like last week, we’ll rate each throw good, bad, or ugly, and you’ll notice a significant downturn in ugly throws, which probably has something to do with Sanchez being stapled to the bench.

Trevor Siemian

Ruling: Bad

Last week, Siemian started like a house afire before falling off, and this game was the exact opposite. He does a good job of standing in against the rush here, but the throw is high, and he’s lucky that this didn’t result in an interception or Demariyus Thomas getting crushed by a safety.

Ruling: Bad (I think)

At first, this looks like yet another DT drop but I’m not sure that’s the case. It’s impossible to be certain whose fault this is without knowing the play call, but it looks like DT’s in route has the option of settling into a zone or continuing across the field. Given the placement of the linebackers and that DT seemed to try to plant his left leg just before entering Ogletree’s zone, it looks like he was cutting off his route, which was the right call. This probably was a misread by Siemian.

Ruling: Good

Welcome to the game Trevor Siemian! As you will see in some of his throws, Siemian tends to make a decision as to who to target before the ball is snapped. This play is the exact opposite of that bad habit, as he finds his 2^nd option and makes a decisive throw to extend the drive.

Ruling: Good

Even though Alfred Williams claims Siemian “overthrew” this to the sideline, that looked like his only safe throw. Pause the video at 10 seconds and you’ll see a very small window to fit the football into if he leads DT down the field. Even if he does drop that dime in, there’s a good chance DT gets rocked by the safety coming over, and if the ball is off at all, a deflection could result in an easy interception. Siemian made a good read and an even better throw, DT just didn’t adjust to it in time.

Ruling: Bad

It looks like Bronco fans are going to have to deal with this frustration all season, as Siemian clearly decides to throw the ball to Thomas before the ball is even snapped, and kills the drive when he didn’t need to. There is no one in his face, but Siemian clearly feels pressure to get the ball out quickly no matter the play call (which is largely a good thing, but like anything not done in moderation, it can turn disastrous quickly). Pause the video at 6 seconds and you’ll see Jordan Norwood breaking free of a linebacker and coming wide open across the middle.

Ruling: Bad

Siemian had some tough luck on this interception that probably hit the ground, but it was still a bad throw. Alfred Williams saying Siemian “gave his receiver a chance,” as the replay clearly shows Latimer having to reach back into the defensive back’s hands to try to “make a play” is emblematic of his general incoherence as a color commentator (he also clearly thinks Siemian should be the starter, and was engaged in a hard sell on every throw all night, reality be damned). If you’re going to air it out down the field, you either hit your guy in stride or you throw it over his head. Anything else dramatically increases the risk of a turnover as this play demonstrated.

Ruling: Good

This is a dart. Siemian reads the field, finds his 2^nd option wide open, and delivers a strike from the far hash mark. It’s throws like this that have probably won him the job.

Ruling: Good

Siemian’s lone touchdown was an easy read and throw, but it’s plays like this that give you an insight into the nerves of an inexperienced QB, as it’s easy to get jumpy and overthrow this pass if your adrenaline is pumping. Siemian makes a decisive throw with heat on it – a good sign that his calm persona is for real, even down around the goal line.

Ruling: Bad

This one is just a simple clunker. Siemian was guilty of locking on to one player from the line of scrimmage, but DT was open the entire time and it’s not as big of a sin on throws like this to the sideline.

***2 Minute Drill***

Ruling: Good

Siemian does a good job diagnosing the blitz, knowing that Virgil Green will be wide open on a sideline route. Siemian’s penchant for getting the ball out quickly helped him on this drive.

Ruling: Good

DT received all the credit for the nifty one handed grab, but this is a better throw than a catch in my book. Siemian knew he was hitting Thomas on the go route the entire time, so he leads the safety to the opposite side of the field with his head, then quickly turns his shoulders and delivers a strike that couldn’t have been more on the money if he handed it to DT 25 yards down the field. Hitting him in stride added another 20 yards to this pass.

Ruling: Ugly

The Rams give Siemian a very simple look here: a four-man rush with a four deep zone and the linebackers covering underneath. Siemian completely misreads the coverage and makes a quick throw he doesn’t need to make into the exact spot the Rams want the ball thrown to. This should have been 6 points for LA.

Ruling: Bad

Siemian’s strong finish ended on a downswing, but there are good intentions residing within this throw. His commitment to staying in the pocket is a promising sign, but this is an example where he needs to scramble outside the tackles and find an open receiver in the scramble drill. Siemian has serious speed, and he shouldn’t be afraid to use it. If he rolls out to his right, he has two wideouts versus three defensive backs on that side of the field. All it would take is one lapse by one defender and this play results in at least a first down.

Paxton Lynch

Ruling: Bad

Getting the ball out quickly is clearly an extreme emphasis by Kubiak, and Lynch and Siemian both struggle to find a balance between locating a receiver and simply locking on to one guy from the start. As soon as Sunshine Taylor went in motion, Lynch saw a matchup he liked and discarded the rest of the field. Pause the video at six seconds and you can see the receiver at the top of the screen blow by his man, and with just a single safety somewhere out of the picture, Lynch not only missed a first down, but potentially a monster play down the field.

Ruling: Good

Holy hell is this a great play by two of the Broncos most promising rookies. The throw looks easy, which is a testament to Lynch’s talent. Pause the video at 5 seconds and you’ll see a defender diving at Paxton’s knees as he’s still holding the ball. The courage it takes to stand in there and sell this screen is one thing, but making an accurate throw while falling backwards is quite another. Devontae Booker did a masterful job of setting up a block to gain another 8 yards downfield, and the oline pancaked some linebackers, but this play was created by the quarterback.

Ruling: Good

This was supposed to be a double move by the tight end, running a slant and go up the middle of the defense but Junior Seau’s nephew shut down the weakside roll and blew up the entire play, but Paxton Lynch stayed calm and showed off the athleticism that made him a first round pick.

Ruling: Bad

Here we see a good example of Lynch’s bad habit. He has a cannon, and no doubt has steamrolled lesser talent at Memphis through his arm alone, but that won’t fly anymore. His footwork has a long way to go, as this is a simple throw made difficult by Lynch’s feet stuck flat on the ground.

Ruling: Good

Alfred Williams says this throw was “just slightly overthrown” in his never ending quest to ensure Siemian gets the starting gig, but if that ball is “overthrown,” one on the money would have been picked off. Lynch missed this throw by a foot or so, but he had about a three-foot window to throw into. Jordan Taylor wasn’t really open on this play, but Paxton Lynch threw him open while a 300-pound behemoth with a full head of steam bore down on him. For my money, this was his best throw in any preseason game so far.

Ruling: Ugly

Lynch was far too easily spooked by the rush here. Pause the video at 4 seconds and you’ll see only 96 coming free on his blindside and Devontae Booker starting to fall down while picking up the blitz. There is a very clear lane to step up into the pocket, but Lynch instinctively rolls to his right side without really reading the rush. The Rams gave him a bit of a funky look at the line and dropped two would be blitzers into coverage, demonstrating how Lynch still has a ways to go in order to grasp the mental side of the pro game.

Ruling: Bad

This is a hell of a throw, but I’m still giving it a negative grade because we see another example of Lynch’s overconfidence in his arm hurting his mechanics. Throwing lobs off your back foot with pressure in your face is one of the quickest ways to get benched in the NFL. Even if it got to his receiver this time, this type of pass will result in a negative play more often than a positive one.

Ruling: Bad

More sloppy footwork from Lynch. He’s just a little flat footed and his shoulders aren’t quite square to the target, causing this high throw on a play that should have been a gimme.

Ruling: Good

Lynch gets a chance to atone on a more difficult version of the same pass he just botched, and this one was a heat seeking missile made even more impressive by the defensive lineman diving at his waist as he steps into the throw. These are the passes that have Broncos Country making comparisons to another #12 picked late in the first round during an uncertain year for QB’s.

Ruling: Ugly

Paxton Lynch ended his night with a throw that contains all of his bad habits. He never sets his feet, falls backwards as he releases, and relies solely on his arm to complete this simple pass. If he threw this against a starting NFL defense, this pass gets taken to the house by a DB.

More from Predominantly Orange

• Broncos chances of landing Sean Payton dwindling, but not gone
• Denver Broncos dream coaching staff for DeMeco Ryans
• Denver Broncos: “Sleeper” David Shaw checks every box
• The Broncos’ coaching search likely has not gone to plan
• Special Chiefs Suck Offer: Bet $5, Win $150 if Joe Burrow Passes for ONE YARD vs KC

Trevor Siemian clearly should be the starter. He has a good grasp on the playbook, the arm talent to make every throw, and he gets the ball out quickly.

However, he has not shown much of a penchant for being a playmaker, and the Broncos look like an offense that maxes out around 20 points with him at the helm.

Paxton Lynch is one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever wear blue and orange, and there are some plays where he simply jumps off the screen.

He has a long way to go to refine his footwork, but if he can fix the common mistakes all young quarterbacks struggle with, he should be the starter sooner rather than later.

Frankly, I’d be surprised if Lynch wasn’t named the starter at some point this season. Siemian would have to play better than the player he has proven to be so far, and that would likely produce a full blown franchise QB controversy – probably resulting in some sort of a Civil War amongst Broncos Country.

Regardless, if there is anything we have learned from this preseason, it’s that unless the Broncos start the Sanchize, the dumpster fire of constant turnovers looks to be a relic from the first half of last year.

Whether this offense is any better at scoring points than that one remains to be seen. Let’s just keep our fingers crossed that the run game can carry the offense all year because no matter who starts at quarterback, there will be plenty of growing pains.